Information Horizon of Stellar Flares

Because the dynamics of stellar flares are modulated by magnetic activity cycles, they provide a window to the underlying dynamics. Using mutual information, we compare the process that creates stellar flares with a nonstationary Poisson process. From the stellar intensity data collected by the Kepler satellite, we designate flare events based on a sudden elevation in the intensity above a given threshold condition. The waiting times are calculated as the time difference between flare events, and surrogate datasets are constructed using the flare rate as a function of time. When the mutual information of the time-lagged waiting time distribution is plotted for both the original and surrogate dada, an increase in the mutual information is present for the original data as compared to the surrogates, indicating that there is short term memory stored within the stellar flare-producing process.

https://digitalcommons.andrews.edu/honors-undergraduate-poster-symposium/2021/symposium/31