Abstract
Rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific Northwest lead to food resource reductions for surface-feeding seabirds, and have been correlated with several marked behavioral changes. Namely, higher SSTs are associated with increased egg cannibalism and egg-laying synchrony in the colony. We study the long-term effects of climate change on population dynamics and survival by considering a simplified, cross-season model that incorporates both of these behaviors in addition to density-dependent and environmental effects. We show that cannibalism can lead to backward bifurcations and strong Allee effects, allowing the population to survive at lower resource levels than would be possible otherwise.
Start Date
3-2-2018 2:30 PM
Included in
Biodiversity Commons, Biology Commons, Dynamical Systems Commons, Marine Biology Commons, Non-linear Dynamics Commons, Ornithology Commons, Population Biology Commons, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology Commons
P-46 A Periodic Matrix Model of Seabird Behavior and Population Dynamics
Rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific Northwest lead to food resource reductions for surface-feeding seabirds, and have been correlated with several marked behavioral changes. Namely, higher SSTs are associated with increased egg cannibalism and egg-laying synchrony in the colony. We study the long-term effects of climate change on population dynamics and survival by considering a simplified, cross-season model that incorporates both of these behaviors in addition to density-dependent and environmental effects. We show that cannibalism can lead to backward bifurcations and strong Allee effects, allowing the population to survive at lower resource levels than would be possible otherwise.
Acknowledgments
Shandelle M. Henson
J. N. Andrews Honors Program